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Waiting for a Housing Crash? What Central Oregon Buyers Should Consider

Writer: Nancy Kramer
Nancy Kramer
Oct 4
3 min read

By Nancy Kramer, REALTOR® | Root & Branch Realty Group


If you’re hoping home prices will fall enough to make buying easier, that’s understandable. Affordability matters. And if you already own a home, the same housing headlines may leave you wondering whether your equity is at risk.


Before making a decision based on a prediction, it helps to look at what the research actually says, what is happening locally, and what works for your finances.


What the national forecast tells us


Fannie Mae’s third-quarter 2026 Home Price Expectations Survey, produced with Pulsenomics, gathers forecasts from more than 100 housing experts. The panel’s average projection calls for national home price growth of 2.5% in 2026, 2.2% in 2027, and 2.7% in 2028.


That suggests the panel generally expects continued appreciation. It does not promise that prices will rise everywhere, or that an individual home will gain value on the same schedule. These are forecasts, and they can change.


I would use that information as background for a conversation, rather than a reason to rush into a purchase.


What matters here in Central Oregon


The September 8, 2026 Beacon Report provides a useful example of how markets can differ within our region. It reported approximately 3.5 months of inventory for Bend and 4 months for Redmond in the single-family home categories it tracks. Those categories exclude condos, manufactured homes, and acreage properties; the Redmond figures also exclude townhomes.


Months of inventory compares available listings with the recent pace of sales. It helps us understand the balance between supply and demand, but it cannot predict a crash or tell us what a specific seller will accept.


For someone considering Prineville, Madras, or Powell Butte, I would look at the properties competing for that buyer’s attention. How many suitable homes are available? How long have they been listed? Have asking prices changed? What have comparable homes actually sold for?


For rural properties, we also need to consider features such as acreage, water sources, septic systems, and access. A broad regional average cannot capture all of that.


You may have options without waiting for a crash


A useful buying opportunity can involve more than a lower asking price. Depending on the property and the seller’s circumstances, an offer might include a request for closing cost assistance, repairs, or a price adjustment.


For example, seller assistance with eligible closing costs could help a buyer preserve savings for moving expenses or unexpected repairs. The value of that assistance depends on the buyer’s loan and the terms of the transaction, so it should be reviewed with the lender.


These possibilities are worth exploring. They are never something I would assume every seller will offer.


Start with the payment you can comfortably afford


Before trying to time the market, ask yourself:


  • Can I afford the full monthly cost, including taxes, insurance, and any applicable HOA dues or mortgage insurance?

  • Will I have savings left after closing for maintenance and emergencies?

  • How long do I realistically expect to own the home?

  • Would this purchase still work if prices stayed flat or declined for a while?


A lender can help you understand financing based on your circumstances. I can help you compare homes and evaluate the terms of an offer.


If the numbers do not work yet, waiting can be a sensible decision. That time can help you build savings, reduce debt, or improve your financing options. If the numbers do work, it is worth examining available homes before making a future price drop the deciding factor.


Sellers need a local plan, too


A national forecast for appreciation does not establish today’s asking price for your home. Pricing should reflect recent comparable sales, current competition, condition, and buyer response.


If you are planning to sell and buy another home, we should examine both sides of the move together, including likely sale proceeds and the cost of your next purchase.


Let’s look at your options


You do not have to predict the next five years to start gathering useful information.

If you are considering a move in Prineville, Redmond, Bend, Madras, or Powell Butte, email me at realtornancykramer@gmail.com with the area you are considering and whether you are buying, selling, or both. We can look at current homes, recent sales, and the questions that matter to your plans.


Nancy Kramer, REALTOR®

Root & Branch Realty Group

Oregon license #200609066

Make your next move your BEST move!



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